COVID-19’s impact on the worldwide retail market will be worse than the 2009 financial crisis

Worldwide total retail sales are expected to hit $23.4 trillion in 2020, down 5.7% from 2019 — and nearly 12% under our pre-coronavirus estimate of $26.5 trillion.

Both the magnitude of the downturn and the pace of the recovery will be harder on the retail market than the 2008-09 financial crisis. For context, the International Monetary Fund estimates worldwide GDP growth will contract 3% this year, compared with a decline of 0.1% in 2009.